Oil price forecast 2010
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Crude oil futures were up in July, on the news of stronger financial markets and tighter supplies in the Gulf of Mexico and the North Sea. By early in August, prices rose to their highest in three months, before making a retreat due to larger supplies and economic recovery. Currently, WTI and Brent crude stand at or near $80 per barrel. Global demand for oil for this year and next are adjusted higher, on stronger GDPs and baseline adjustments. Demand is expected to be 86.6 mb/d this year, and 87.9 mb/d in 2011. A slower-than-expected economic recovery will cut 2010 and 2011 predictions by 290 kb/d and 1.2 mb/d. Worldwide oil supplies rose by 850 kb/d to 87.2 mb/d in July, as OPEC boosted production. Non-OPEC supply predictions for this year are lifted to 52.6 mb/d, and that number will rise to 52.9 mb/d in 2011. BP has capped the gusher in the Gulf of Mexico, but now there is a potential for a loss of output of 60 kb/d in 2010. Global refining estimates rose by 425 kb/d for the second quarter of 2010 on a strong European market. At 73.9 mb/d, global production is 1.8 mb/d higher than expected, with growth encouraged by rapid expansion in China and a recovery by US refineries. | |